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☆ With inflation stalling, the long-predicted storm clouds in the economy may actually be forming
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Jamie Dimon warned two years ago that storm clouds and a hurricane were brewing in the US economy. On top of that, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for more than two years despite 11 rate hikes intended to slow the economy in an effort to curb decades-high inflation. But potentially persistent inflation isn’t the only red flag in the economy right now. Small-business owners haven’t felt this bad about the economy in over a decadeAlthough the economy is booming by many measures, including last month’s blowout jobs report, small business owners aren’t feeling gung-ho about it. That’s significant because that cohort is experiencing an even lower unemployment rate than the nation overall.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Bowman, ” Bowman, haven’t, Holly Wade, Bill Dunkelberg, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Federation of Independent, York Locations: New York

☆ Inflation is cooling, but the price hikes aren’t done
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Lucy Bayly | Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Inflation in the United States has unquestionably cooled after hitting 40-year highs last year. Other key inflation gauges, the more comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, have moderated as well. A spike in gas prices and other components such as persistently high shelter costs have kept inflation elevated. The locally owned Walnut Group restaurant company closed its venerable Mediterranean Restaurant (fondly called The Med), the French bistro Brasserie Ten Ten and the newer Italian entrant Via Perla. Courtesy Tim Romano PhotographyAlthough Brasserie Ten Ten had a nearly two-decade run before its closure, it was like starting a brand new restaurant, Hessel said.

Persons: Marlon Pando, White Lotus, Tony Hessel, he’s, Jerome Powell, Brandon Bell, —, ”, Lydia Boussour, United States —, Pando, “, Price, Frederic J . Brown, Mark Zandi, Chase Castor, hadn’t, Holly Wade, Peggy Romano, Romano, Brasserie, Tim Romano, Hessel, ” Hessel, you’ve, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Disney, Mexican Grill, White, Getty, Moody’s, National Federation of Independent, Washington Post, NFIB Research, shocker, Walnut Group, Via Perla Locations: Minneapolis, New Jersey, Boulder , Colorado, United States, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Alhambra , California, AFP, Marion , Kansas, —, Walnut

☆ The US economy can’t function smoothly without UPS. That’s why a strike will hurt
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

That’s why there is so much at stake in contract negotiations between UPS and the Teamsters union. Without a deal, 340,000 Teamsters are preparing to go on strike at the nation’s largest trucking company starting August 1. A UPS strike could spread disruptions like that across much of the country. Their ability to adjust and find alternatives, it’s going to be challenging.”The economy has changed radically in the 26 years since the last UPS strike in 1997. UPS won’t comment on its contingency plans, saying it is focused on reaching a deal that would avoid a strike.

Persons: ”, Patrick Anderson, It’s, “, Sean O’Brien, O’Brien, it’s, Holly Wade, Satish Jindel, Mike Eisner, Jindel, Eisner, Tommy Storch, you’ll, it’ll, ” Storch Organizations: New, New York CNN, UPS isn’t, UPS, Teamsters, Anderson Economic Group, CNN, “ Shipping, National Federation of Independent Business, FedEx, US Postal Service, Postal Service, USPS Locations: New York, Michigan

☆ LGBTQ small business owners struggle to find financing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For LGBTQ owners, the struggle has been even harder. Overall, small business owners are skeptical about their future business conditions, said Holly Wade, executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business' Research Center. "The small business economy is being hindered by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages," she said. Yet, data show that when it comes to financing, LGTBQ small business owners are being left behind. While LGBTQ small business owners are very optimistic, they are also still more likely to report more kinds of financial challenges than non-LGBTQ businesses.

Persons: It's, Spencer Watson, Watson, Holly Wade, hasn't Organizations: Advancement, Center, Economic Advancement & Research, National Federation of Independent Business ' Research

Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.

☆ American small business pessimism on recession, inflation, isn't relenting
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

That's according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for the first quarter of 2023. The Q1 survey was conducted from Jan. 23-Jan. 30 among over 2,300 small business owners across the country. "Small business owners have a more difficult time gaining benefits of economies of scale," said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center, whose own recent surveying of small business owners finds persistent pessimism. The new CNBC|SurveyMonkey data finds 75% of small business owners saying they are still facing rising costs of supplies and just over half (51%) supply chain disruptions. Politics is a factor in Main Street outlook Politics plays a role in any small business survey, with a demographic that skews conservative.

☆ Paying back Covid loans is hammering millions of businesses
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Gabe Cohen | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Unlike some other pandemic programs, these 30-year loans, carrying an interest rate of 3.75% for businesses, were intended to be paid back. But revenue is still down more than 45% — and it's time to start paying back those government loans. Coming out of the pandemic, small businesses have faced difficult hurdles, like staffing shortages, supply chain issues and inflation. Now add a possible looming recession, just as these EIDL loans come due. For EIDL loans over $200,000, a personal guaranty was required for individuals with 20% or more ownership in the business.

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